Rio Tinto and Glencore talks fuel consolidation pressure across global mining

Talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore over a potential takeover that could create a new global mining leader are intensifying debate across the industry, with analysts warning the move could accelerate consolidation in an already copper hungry sector and place growing pressure on BHP to respond.

If successful, the transaction could rank among the ten largest mergers and acquisitions ever completed, depending on final valuation. Bankers say the discussions reflect a rising appetite for scale that could trigger a wave of mega deals as early as 2026, particularly among miners seeking exposure to future facing commodities.

“This is yet another example that the mining space is consolidating, and the big firms are being forced to do corporate action to create value,” Mark Kelly, CEO at advisory firm MKI Global, said.

The renewed focus on consolidation follows last year’s announcement by Anglo American of a proposed merger with Canada’s Teck Resources, a deal that would create a copper focused heavyweight and which is still awaiting regulatory approval. Together, these moves highlight how strategic importance has shifted toward metals critical for electrification and digital infrastructure.

Several analysts and investors believe BHP, currently the world’s largest miner with a market capitalisation of about $161 billion, is under pressure to act. Industry sources suggest BHP could either intervene directly in the Rio Glencore talks or pursue an alternative transaction to maintain its leadership position.

“The most likely interloper to this deal is BHP,” said Richard Hatch, analyst at Berenberg. “Essentially, with the deal driven by copper, we think that BHP could look to acquire Glencore with a rival bid, keep copper, and likely divest the balance.”

Others caution that regulatory hurdles would be significant, with authorities likely to require asset disposals to address competition concerns. One banking source noted that Glencore’s diverse portfolio could also complicate any acquisition strategy.

Talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore remain at a preliminary stage, with Rio required to make a formal offer by February 5 unless the deadline is extended. Previous discussions between the two companies have failed to reach agreement, raising the possibility that the current talks could again stall.

George Cheveley, Natural Resources Portfolio Manager at Ninety-One, a shareholder in Glencore, said BHP may feel compelled to intervene but could face internal hesitation following its unsuccessful attempts to acquire Anglo American in 2024 and again briefly in late 2025.

Additional pressure is building as BHP prepares to appoint a new chief executive, likely from within the company, who will be expected to drive strategic change and reinforce the miner’s long term copper ambitions.

Beyond corporate rivalry, copper remains the central driver behind consolidation. Demand for the metal is being fuelled by the global energy transition and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, both of which rely heavily on copper for efficient electricity transmission.

“The real read across from both this, and the Anglo-Teck deal is in copper – we know that copper is attractive and that’s what buyers want access to,” said Kelly.

While some analysts believe BHP could consider other potential targets such as Vale or Freeport, others argue that standing still may be the best option.

“BHP has a cleaner growth profile in copper than a merged Rio/Glencore, so I don’t think they need to do anything,” said Kaan Peker, an analyst at RBC. “That said, if the transaction is successful, you might get some pressure with shareholders saying: ‘How come Rio pulled this off and you couldn’t with Anglo?’.”

As the mining sector weighs scale against strategy, the outcome of the Rio Tinto and Glencore talks could prove pivotal in reshaping competition across the global copper market.