Flipping the switch: is decarbonisation possible for Africa?

Paul van Zijl, Group CEO at Starsight Energy, believes it is. He maintains that we must apply a contextual lens and move away from all-or-nothing thinking, employing a holistic, phased and sustainable approach to the continent’s energy mix.

It’s fair to say that the global imperative to ‘decarbonise’ – the shift from fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas or oil to carbon-free and renewable energy sources – has been more of a stumble than a sprint in Africa.

But as always, context is important. In Africa, other pressing socio-economic often – understandably – take priority, which then limits available funding; a lack of infrastructure hampers development; and, of course, vested interests slow progress. All of these factors have contributed to Africa’s sluggish transition, for which it has been (often unfairly) criticised.

The cruel irony is that – even though Africa is far from the leading perpetrator behind the world’s current carbon status (the continent is estimated to contribute less than 4% to global greenhouse gas emissions, making it one of the lowest emitters in the world) – it is one of the regions most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Africa’s temperature increases surpass the global average, while multi-year droughts in some regions juxtaposed by extreme flooding in others have become the norm. Without targeted intervention, an estimated 118 million Africans living in extreme poverty will face increased exposure to droughts, floods, and extreme heat in the coming years, further straining poverty alleviation efforts and economic growth.

African countries are estimated to lose 2–5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) annually and allocate up to 9% of their budgets to respond to climate extremes, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) State of the Climate in Africa 2023 report. In Sub-Sahara Africa, adaptation costs are projected to reach USD 30–50 billion by 2030, or 2–3% of the region’s GDP. Yet, Africa is estimated to only receive around 3% of global climate finance.

Africa is not the biggest culprit of carbonisation – but it is one of its biggest victims

African countries, in general, do not have the same funding capabilities as the developed world, and priorities also differ. Poverty alleviation and economic participation/upliftment are understandably at the top of the list for most African governments and this means that limited funding needs to be allocated accordingly. In addition, recent conversations have highlighted the higher cost of debt for African nations, when compared to other sovereign issuances in emerging markets.

Despite these significant challenges, Africa has a lot going for it: we’re unburdened by the need to decarbonise an “old economy”, as is the case with our Western counterparts, and the continent is blessed with immense renewable energy potential. Strategically harnessing these assets could not only fast-track climate action but also unlock significant economic opportunities for the continent.

To get there, however, we need to change our perspective from believing that fossil fuels are the only road to job creation, political power and economic growth. It shouldn’t be “either/or” but rather, “and”. We must aim for more choice, less reliance on one energy type, and greater sustainability.

Eradicating fossil fuels will not happen overnight; the losses from flipping the switch prematurely would be too great. Rather, our focus should be on what can be added to the energy mix, and the steps we can take to reduce our carbon footprint. Take natural gas, for example, generally viewed as the “lesser” of the fossil fuel evils. Natural gas and renewable energy can be quite complementary as part of a balanced energy strategy, especially during the transition to a low-carbon future.

We’ve seen, in real-time, major oil and gas companies drilling more and backtracking on their renewable energy targets and efforts. Yet, when natural gas, a by-product of oil drilling, is captured and used as fuel it is combusted more efficiently, producing lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions compared to coal or oil. However, must ensure it is properly handled, as gas flaring or venting has a massive negative environmental impact.

What has changed, however, is that the typical excuse that renewable energy is “too expensive” has lost all weight. The build cost of renewable energy has reduced substantially over recent years while the trend for electricity grid prices in most countries has done the opposite.

Globally, fuel prices have been highly volatile, with prices escalating in most countries on the back of political upheaval in the Middle East and Ukraine / Russia. And when compared to traditional power tariffs in countries like South Africa, annual renewable energy escalations are negligible. The battle is no longer between clean energy and cheap energy; it is now significantly more affordable to go the renewable route.

Renewable energy is the continent’s real sunrise sector

The South African renewables industry has proven a case study for the rest of the continent. It has seen substantial involvement from the private sector, which has led to significant capital investment to maintain and improve infrastructure.

It’s creating jobs in both metros and rural areas, with a prime example being our SunCentral solar farm development in De Aar, Northern Cape where our operations will create more than 460 permanent and contract jobs. And innovations in renewable energy are saving SA businesses vast amounts of money, with solutions such as on-site solar, electricity wheeling, energy trading and aggregation helping make the switch to green energy not only possible but also profitable in the commercial and industrial sectors.

With the rise of the Independent Power Producer (IPP), African governments don’t have to drive this transition on their own anymore. Each sector has a critical role to play, with success breeding more success.

Africa stands at a critical juncture, where the challenges of climate change intersect with the opportunity to redefine its energy future. The path to decarbonisation should neither be a sprint nor a stumble – it must be a deliberate, phased journey involving the collective effort of all stakeholders.

By embracing a balanced energy mix, encouraging innovation, and leveraging deregulation, Africa can transition to a low-carbon future without compromising its socio-economic priorities. Renewable energy isn’t just an environmental imperative – it’s an economic opportunity, a job creator, and a cornerstone for sustainable development.

It’s time to flip the switch.